Economics insights

India - Asia’s next economic tiger?

CRU Subscriber Content
30 Aug 2017
 | Region: 
Asia (India)
 | Topic: 
Demand, Economic

When Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India in 2014, the country was hopeful that he would transform India into Asia's next economic tiger. Three years into his term in office, India appears on track to be the fastest growing economy in Asia over the medium term.

Today’s low oil prices spell higher prices ahead

CRU Subscriber Content
20 Jul 2017
 | Region: 
Global
 | Topic: 
Prices, Economic

Between 2011 and 2014, the price of Brent crude oil averaged $108/bbl, but over the last three years the average has fallen below $50/bbl. This relatively low crude oil price has contributed to a favorable cost environment for commodity producers by reducing the cost of fuels - diesel, HFO and natural gas - as well as both overland and ocean freight.

Vehicle growth is all about emerging markets

CRU Subscriber Content
06 Jun 2017
 | Region: 
Global
 | Topic: 
Demand, Economic

In this Special Feature we present a regional analysis of global vehicle production. The startling conclusion is that in the period to 2021 output growth, led by China, will be almost entirely concentrated in emerging markets.

China: Era of cost deflation is over for primary aluminium

CRU Subscriber Content
23 Nov 2016
 | Region: 
Asia (China)
 | Topic: 
Prices, Economic

Chinese aluminium business operating costs have been in decline since 2011. Indeed, we have seen average Chinese smelting costs decrease by 37.1% between 2011 and 2016, as shown in the chart below. However, Chinese operating costs have started to rise in recent months, and are anticipated to start rising y/y from 2017.

Global economic uncertainties increase on Trump victory

CRU Subscriber Content
22 Nov 2016
 | Region: 
North America (USA)
 | Topic: 
Economic, Regulation

We thought that Brexit was the biggest political shock of 2016 but, as is often the case, the US has done it 'bigger and better' by selecting Donald Trump to be its 45th President.

UK exit raises a lot of questions

CRU Subscriber Content
24 Jun 2016
 | Region: 
Europe (UK)
 | Topic: 
Economic

In a surprise result, the UK has voted to leave the European Union. There is massive uncertainty over the outlook, particularly for the UK, but our new base case is that global economic growth, commodity prices and most currencies will only be modestly impacted. However, the effect on investment into the renewables industry and the UK's participation in the 'Single Digital Market' are uncertain. Vote in our poll: How will Brexit affect wire and cable producers in the UK & the EU?

The future of the Chinese economy

CRU Subscriber Content
23 Mar 2016
 | Region: 
Asia (China)
 | Topic: 
Economic

CRU laid out the cases for an orderly transition and a hard landing for the Chinese economy 12 months ago and we suggested an orderly transition was the more likely scenario.

Greece, the Eurozone and implications for commodities

CRU Subscriber Content
01 Jul 2015
 | Region: 
Europe (Greece)
 | Topic: 
Economic

In this Insight, we present our latest base case, explore a scenario for a chaotic Greek exit from the Eurozone (Grexit) and comment on the potential effects of a Grexit on the markets for commodities.

How long will China's steel & copper demand slowdown last?

CRU Subscriber Content
19 May 2015
 | Region: 
Asia (China)
 | Topic: 
Economic

Lavan Mahadeva, principal consulting economist, CRU, looks at the behaviour of metals demand in notable recessions and banking crises over the years and asks how lessons from history can be applied to China.

How worried should we be about China?

CRU Subscriber Content
07 Apr 2015
 | Region: 
Asia (China)
 | Topic: 
Economic

In a repeat of the early months of 2014, worries over the potential for a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy as a result of the massive increase in debt have once again come to the fore.